Moi, Paul Derand

Moi, Paul Derand

El Nino in 2015

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26/03/2015:

I found on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website their predictions for El Nino Southern Oscillation (see El Nino wrap up).

They expect El Nino to build up from February to May. From June to August the El Nino would be with a SST anomaly of 1,2-1,6°C.

I agree with them as 3 (warm sea surface temperature anomalies near the dateline, warm sea sub-surface temperatures anomalies near the dateline, weakening of trade winds) of 5 studied factors suggest an El Nino event (the other 2 are southern oscillation index and cloudiness near the dateline, they are near average at the moment). This is why I estimate a 60% chance of El Nino, a 40% chance of a neutral situation and I don't expect La Nina.

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02/04/2015:

Now, El Nino is 80% certain. Actually, there are already 0,4-0,8°C warm anomalies in SST near the equator and the dateline, warm anomalies in the sea sub-surface near the equator and the dateline, reversal of trade winds in the W Pacific, decreasing negative SOI values. In the months of April, May and June, El Nino is expected to build up. El Nino is expected to reach 1,2-1,6°C by the month of June. It is expected to persist in intensity until December 2015 and then start to decay.

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26/04/2015:

El Nino's build-up is certain. Warm SST anomalies extend across nearly all of the equatorial Pacific, from about 150°E to the South American coast. The sea sub-surface temperatures also shows El Nino (warm anomalies near the equator near 160°W). The SOI is around -10,2, this indicates El Nino. Weakening of trade winds and even reversal of trade winds in the W Pacifc occurs. Cloudiness occurs near the dateline.

At the moment, El Nino is 0,7°C, it is expected to reach 1,8°C by the month of June, persist in intensity around 1,5-1,8°C until December/November 2015, and then start to decay.

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28/05/2015:

El Nino already reached 1,1-1,3°C and it is strengthening. I expected the warming to continue, El Nino may reach 1,8-2,0°C by late July or August. From the month of September, it will persist in intensity, at least until the end of the southern winter.

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25/06/2015:

El Nino strengthens and is expected to keep strengthening for another three months. It is 60% likely to be accompannied by a positive indian ocean dipole event. From October El Nino will slowly weaken.

Paul DERAND



26/03/2015
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