Moi, Paul Derand

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April 24, 2015:

Luckily, activity remains at low levels for the moment in Tungurahua, with small explosions and ash emissions, but this is luckily only VEI=2. This report is short as now I'm getting informed about a more powerful, sub-plinian eruption at another volcano, in Chile: Calbuco.

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April 13, 2015:

"Intermittent mild explosive activity with ash emissions continues at the volcano.
An unusual seismic swarm occurred during the night of 9-10 April, following two volcanic earthquakes at 6 km depth in the evening. More than 1300 quakes were recorded until noon of 10 April. What made it unusual was that the seismic events were of the "drumbeat" type, not seen on Tungurahua during the past 16 years, but thought to correspond to the ascent of viscous magma. 
Gas emissions have continued to show an increase and the presence of black ash also suggests that a new batch of magma is arriving. These observations make the scenario of a sudden violent explosion in the near future a serious possibility.
Authorities have started to take preventive measures in case of a larger eruption. Road conditions and meeting points in case of evacuations were checked and communicated to the local population. Access restrictions were imposed to potentially dangerous areas, in particular valleys draining from the volcano and the road Penipe Los Pajaros - Banos". (Copied from volcano discovery website here.)

Moreover, since april 8, there were new ash emissions, tremor episodes and increased SO2 output.

All of this suggest an increase in activity leading to an intense paroxysm in the next several days or few weeks.

BE CAREFUL: Volcanoes are still unpredictable and there may be errors in these predictions. Moreover these are short term predictions.

Paul DERAND

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