Moi, Paul Derand

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Saturday 28 February 2015 at 22:10:

Strong strombolian (VEI=2) activity continues, linked to lava dome n°55 located in the crater, with beautiful ash plumes (photo, photo, photo, photo, photo and photo). Tremor (a mean of 96 minutes per day in the last two days) and high earthquake activity have been occuring in the past two days. An overflight of the crater has shown that lava dome n°55 have increased in size (it now has a volume of 1,96 millions cubic meters). See a photo of the lava dome (located at the bottom of the inner crater). Growth of the lava dome continues as we can see a glow at night (photo). I expect strong strombolian (VEI=2) activity to continue for the moment, linked to the lava dome.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Thursday 26 February 2015 at 11:00:

Strong strombolian (VEI=2) activity continues, linked to lava dome n°55 located in the crater, with beautiful ash plumes that have a moderate ash content. 38 minutes of tremor in the last 24 hours, high earthquake activity and little deformation of the volcano (4 microradians) suggest that activity might continue at a similar intensity or increase a little.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Wednesday 25 February 2015 at 11:00:

Strong strombolian (VEI=2) activity continues, linked to lava dome n°55 located in the crater. Last night from 22:50 to 03:45, a succession of explosions, with segments of tremor, occured, throwing incandescent fragments as far as 700 meters from the crater (see photo). After that episode, 19 more explosions were registered: photo and  photo of the most beautiful two.

Ashfall was reported to the Northeast of the volcano, in San Martín Texmelucan, San Matías Tlalancaleca, San Salvador el Verde, Santa Rita Tlahuapan, Tlaltenango, Huejotzingo,  San Miguel  Xoxtla, Domingo Arenas, Santa María Atexcac  and Puebla airport. NOAA has forecasted ash dispersion (see here), we can see that the northeastern state of Puebla and the state of Tlaxcala are the regions that are most likely to be affected by ashfall. Also notice that Volcan de Colima is in eruption as well.

Moreover, earthquake activity was strong, 1 volcanic earthquake of magnitude 2,2 yesterday at 20:57 and 64 minutes of tremor were recorded. A constant fumarole is observed. All these observations suggest that this strong strombolian activity might continue at a similar rate in the next day or so.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Tuesday 24 February 2015 at 11:00:

Strombolian (VEI=2) activity continues, linked to lava dome n°55 located in the crater. The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks. Explosions from this lava dome could have a VEI of 2 or 3, but luckily there would not be any pyroclastic flows because this dome is quite flat (and it isn't taller than the crater rim).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Monday 23 February 2015 at 11:00:

Strombolian (VEI=2) activity continues, linked to lava dome n°55 located in the crater. The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks. Explosions from this lava dome could have a VEI of 2 or 3, but luckily there would not be any pyroclastic flows because this dome is quite flat (and it isn't taller than the crater rim).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Saturday 21 February 2015 at 11:00:

Strombolian (VEI=2) activity continues, linked to lava dome n°55 located in the crater. The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks. Explosions from this lava dome could have a VEI of 2 or 3, but luckily there would not be any pyroclastic flows because this dome is quite flat (and it isn't taller than the crater rim).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Wednesday 18 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the last 24 hours, 47 emissions were recorded, the most beautiful one's photo is here. the VEI remained at 2, with 5 explosions with plumes of less than 1km. Also, a volcanotectonic earthquake of magnitude 1,9 at 02:27 and a small number of earthquakes suggest that the eruption might continue at the same rate.

A reconnaisance flight over the volcano has been done. The presence of the lava dome n°55 has been confirmed (see photo. It has a dimameter of at least 150m, but it is quite flat and doesn't entirely fill the inner crater (the inner crater is still 100m deep). The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks. Explosions from this lava dome could have a VEI of 2 or 3, but luckily there would not be any pyroclastic flows because this dome is quite flat (and it isn't taller than the crater rim).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Monday 16 February 2015 at 21:50:

Since 19:33, a sequence of emissions accompannied with a few explosions is observed. A gas and ash plume is sent 1km high, and drifts to the NE. Light ashfall is possible in localities as far as 20 km to the Northeast of the volcano. Incandescent fragments are ejected as far as 400m from the crater (see photo).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Monday 16 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the last 24 hours, a moderate (90) number of emissions recorded and 2 explosions (see photo) recorded. The VEI of today is 1.

23 minutes of tremor and a few earthquakes suggest that the number of emissions will be moderate to high (60 to 143 emissions/day) in the next day or so.

At night, incandescense probably associated to the growth of the lava dome suggests that if it continues growing, it will again partially occlude the chimney and explosive (VEI=2) episodes similar to yesterday morning's succession of explosions (from 6:50 to 12:00) will occur again in the next day or so.

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Sunday 15 February 2015 at 11:00:

All the day yesterday there was a continuous emission of a gas plume with a little ash content. It is likely that this ash producing activity is linked with a lava dome inside the crater.

In the last 24 hours, there were 2 volcanotectonic earthquakes (one of Mg 1,3 yesterday at 16:26 and one of Mg 1,4 yesterday evening at 23:13) and 145 minutes of intermittent tremor from yesterday 18:31 to today 6:02. See yesterday's and today's seismograms.

Following this, from 6:50 today, there was a succession of 10 explosions (see today's seismogram) that sent columns to 1,8 km high (photo and photo). Ash plumes were sent to the NE and ashfall was reported in Huejotzingo, Domingo Arenas, Salvador el Verde and San Felipe Teotlalcingo this morning. This succession of explosions stopped at midday with the last small explosion. It is likely that this explosive ash producing activity is linked with a lava dome inside the crater.

Now there is again a continous emission of gas with a low ash content (see photo and photo), similar to yesterday.

At night, incandescense probably associated to the growth of the lava dome suggests that if it continues growing, it will again partially occlude the chimney and explosive (VEI=2) episodes similar to this morning's succession of explosions (from 6:50 to 12:00) will occur again in the next day or so.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Saturday 14 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the last 24 hours a high (158) number of emissions has been recorded and 1 explosion. Most of these emissions have been emitted yesterday between 11:03 and 13:29 during a succession of emissions (see photo and photo) that was accompannied by 62 minutes of intermittent tremor. According to CENAPRED, this activity may be linked with a lava dome inside the crater.

Moreover, after this strombolian episode, a few earthquakes and a total of 20 minutes of harmonic tremor were recorded. I expect the number of emissions to be moderate in the next day or so.

This morning, there is a continuous emissions of gas and ash (see photos here and here). According to me, this continuous ash and gas emission might be caused by the ash-generating reaction of the lava dome's lava under the fumarole's pressure.

According to me the VEI may remain at 2 (strombolian) in the next day or so.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Friday 13 February 2015 at 11:00:

Today the number of recorded emissions was moderate, 9 small explosions have been recorded. Today the eruption's VEI is 1.

In the last 24 hours, 600 minutes of tremor have been registered and earthquake activity was important. It suggests that the intensity of the eruption might increase to high (about 120 to 180 emissions/day) and that the explosivity might increase to 2 in the next 24 hours.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Thursday 12 February 2015 at 19:00:

Today from 15:30 to 17:30, a succession of numerous small explosions has been registered (see here and here). Before this event, 40 minutes of tremor and on e volcanotectonic earthquake have been recorded, so this increase in the number of emissions may be explained by this. But why then would these emissions be explosive? According to CENAPRED, it may be explosive due to a lava dome inside the crater (so the lava dome blocks the magma inside until there is too much pressure and it explodes partially). This is called péléan-style eruptions. Luckily, this lava dome is flat and it isn't rising over the crater rim, so it is not voluminous enough to create pyroclastic flows if it explodes. The VEI of this episode was 2. I expected the VEI to come down to 1,5 in the next 24 hours.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong or unnacurate predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Tuesday 10 February 2015 at 11:00:

Explosivity is at 1 today and I expected it to remain similar at 1 in the next day or so.

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Saturday 7 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the last 24 hours, explosivity was 1 or 1,5. It is expected to remain between 1 and 1,5.

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Friday 6 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the past 24 hours, the number of recorded emissions was moderate (107 emissions). Their plumes were sent up to 700-100m above the volcano like in this photo. Little earthquake activity has been recorded. No tremor. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, the number of emissions may be moderate (100-130 emissions are likely in the next 24 hours).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

In the last 24 hours, 28 small explosions have been recorded. Their plumes had a little ash content and were sent up to 700 meters in height. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1,5 on a scale of 8 (strombolian). The volcano is observed with a  light gas plume. I think the explosivity of the eruption may be between 1 and 1,5 (moderate to strombolian) in the next 24 hrs.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website

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Thursday 5 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the past 24 hours, the number of recorded emissions was moderate (90 emissions). A small number of  earthquakes has been recorded 1 volcanotectonic earthquake of Mg 1,8 today at 07:22. Harmonic tremor decreased (15 minutes during the last 24 hours). The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, the number of emissions may be moderate (85-115 emissions are likely in the next 24 hours).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

In the last 24 hours, 4 explosions have been recorded. Their plumes had a little 4ash content and were sent up to 500 meters in height. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1 on a scale of 8 (moderate). I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain around 1 or 1,5 (moderate to strombolian), in the next 24 hrs.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website

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Wednesday 4 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the past 24 hours, the recorded intensity of the eruption was low (only 16 emissions). This low number of recorded emissions may be explained by cloudiness which made difficult to clearly see the summit.  Earthquake activity was strong and 1 volcanotectonic earthquake of Mg 2,0 yesterday at 23:52.  30 minutes of harmonic tremor. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, the number of emissions may be high to very high (190-250 emissions are likely in the next 24 hours).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

Moreover, in the last 24 hours, 60 explosions have been recorded. Their plumes had a moderate ash content and were sent up to 1 kilometer in height. (See  photo, photo, photo, photo and photo.)  I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 2 on a scale of 8 (explosive).  No significant fumarolic activity has been observed. I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain similar, around 2 (explosive with about 60 to 90 explosions per day), in the next 24 hrs.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website

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Tuesday 3 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the past 24 hours, the intensity of the eruption was high (148 emissions). Earthquake activity was strong.  8 minutes of weak harmonic tremor. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, the number of emissions may be high (145-240 emissions are likely in the next 24 hours).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

Moreover, in the last 24 hours, 52 explosions have been recorded. Due to cloudiness, it was impossible the clearly see their plumes (see photo). I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 2 on a scale of 8 (explosive). A continous  gas emission from the summit (fumarolic activity) is observed. I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain similar, around 2 (explosive with about 60 explosions per day), in the next 24 hrs.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website

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Monday 2 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the past 24 hours, the intensity of the eruption was moderate (95 emissions).  Earthquake activity was important.  No tremor. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, the number of emissions may be moderate to high (90-130 emissions are likely in the next 24 hours).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

In the last 24 hours, 35 explosions have been recorded. Their plumes were sent 300 to 1000 meters above the volcano and had a low content in ash. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 2 on a scale of 8 (explosive). A light gas plume (fumarolic activity) is observed. I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain similar, around 2 (explosive), in the next 24 hrs.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website

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Sunday 1 February 2015 at 11:00:

In the past 24 hours, the intensity of the eruption was moderate (only 37 emissions). Earthquake activity was important and 2 volcanotectonic earthquakes have been recorded in the last 24 hours (one of Mg 1,6 yesterday at 18:28 and an other one of Mg 1,9 today at 05:25).  1 minute of tremor. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, the number of emissions may be moderate to high (60-124 emissions are likely in the next 24 hours).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

In the last 24 hours, 10 explosions have been recorded. Their plumes were sent 0.5 to 0.8 km above the volcano and had a low content in ash. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 2 on a scale of 8 (explosive). A  light gas plume (fumarolic activity) is observed. I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain similar, around 2 (explosive), in the next 24 hrs.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the volcano observatory's website