Moi, Paul Derand

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Friday 27 February 2015:

In a helicopter flight today, no glow was seen at the eruptive site. So it seems that magma flow is over, i.e. that new and hot magma flows no longer to the surface through the vents in Holuhraun. Volcanic gas is, however, still being released from the eruptive site and the lava field. We can say the eruption has come to an end as gas release has, at many times in past eruptions, continued after the eruption.

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Wednesday 25 February 2015:

Lava flow in Holuhraun has decreased substantially. Earthquake activity keeps decaying slowly, see the evolution of earthquake activity (earthquake graphs and earthquake moment graphs) during all the eruption here. The rate of the subsidence in Bárðarbunga caldera is now only 5 cm per day. SO2 values are low. GPS measurements near Vatnajökull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bárðarbunga, indicating a small flow of magma from under the volcano.

These obsevations suggest that the eruption will continue in the coming weeks, with a gradual to slow decrease in activity. In brief, the activity is decreasing and is expected to keep decreasing until the end of the eruption.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the icelandic met office's monitoring of this eruption on their website.

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Sunday 22 February 2015:

Activity continues at similar low levels as in recent days. Here you can see some beautiful aerial photos of Holuhraun taken during these five months of eruption.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the icelandic met office's monitoring of this eruption on their website.

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Friday 20 February 2015:

According to the icelandic met office, the decreasing magnitude of the strongest earthquakes, and the increasing time intervals between them, are in accordance with the generally observed decay of seismic and volcanic activity in the region over the last weeks and months.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the icelandic met office's monitoring of this eruption on their website.

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Wednesday 18 February 2015:

Seismic activity keeps decaying slowly.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the icelandic met office's monitoring of this eruption on their website.

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Monday 16 February 2015:

See photos of the eruptive site here.

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Sunday 15 February 2015:

The new lava field has reached an area of 85 cubic kilometers.

See the icelandic met office's monitoring of this eruption on their website.

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Tuesday 3 February 2015:

On Saturday around 2300 µg/m³ SO2 was measured in Hofn in Hornafjordur, this is a high value. Today and tomorrow, considerable pollution is expected near the eruption site, to its north-east and east (according to the icelandic met office's website).

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues. A mean of 32,5 earthquakes/day in the Bardarbunga caldera and 10 earthquakes/day in Holuhraun over the past 4 days. During this time, all earthquakes detected in the caldera were below magnitude 4,6 and all earthquakes in Holuhraun were below magnitude 2.

GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga.

It suggets that the eruption will have a very slow decrease in intensity, until it totally stops several months later.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

See the icelandic met office's website