Moi, Paul Derand

Moi, Paul Derand

Popocatepetl eruption update, March 2015, Mexico local time (UTC-6h)



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Tuesday 31 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

Activity continues at low levels (VEI=1), similar to yesterday. However, incandescence at night only occurs at times, so I think that an increase in activity is not coming for the moment.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Monday 30 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

Activity continues at low levels, but a little increase is observed and some factors show that the growth of the lava dome restarts slowly: incandescence at night restarts a little, 1 explosion today, 1 minute of tremor, continuous emissions restarting to appear at times (photo)... We have to wait to draw conclusions, but the most likely scenario is a slow increase in activity due to the lava dome until the explosions make the lava dome collapse.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Sunday 29 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

Activity was explosive (VEI=2) until Saturday 28th, but it has come back to lower levels (VEI=1) today: no explosions have been registered today. A regain in explosive activity is possible but "when" is the big question.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Wednesday 25 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

Strong strombolian (VEI=2) activity continues, linked to a lava dome located inside the crater. Now the strombolian activity is occuring during successions of explosions (such as last night's four hour long one). Moreover, 14 isolated explosions also occured (see photo). Earthquake actvity increased, tremor continues during the successions and incandescence continues at night; suggesting that strong strombolian (VEI=2) activity will continue in the coming days. Moreover, the presence of the lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks, causing explosive (VEI=2) activity. Due to this, ashfall is possible as far as 20 km to the Eastsoutheast of the volcano.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Tuesday 24 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

Strong strombolian (VEI=2) activity continues, linked to a lava dome located inside the crater. Tremor at times and incandescence from the crater at night continues, suggesting that the lava dome associated with the increase in activity continues to grow. The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks, causing explosive (VEI=2) activity. Due to this, ashfall is possible as far as 20 km to the East of the volcano.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Sunday 22 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

Strombolian (VEI=2) activity continues, linked to a lava dome located inside the crater. Incandescence from the crater at night continues, suggesting that the lava dome associated with the increase in activity continues to grow. The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks, causing explosive (VEI=2) activity.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Thursday 19 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

Activity is now explosive (VEI=2): see a  photo. Weak harmonic tremor at times and incandescence at night continue, suggesting that the lava dome associated with the increase in activity continues to grow. The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks, causing explosive (VEI=2) activity.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Wednesday 18 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

As expected, activity increased in explosivity in the last day or so. Even though it increased, it remains moderate (VEI=1): there are few explosions with small plumes. Weak harmonic tremor at times and incandescence at night continue, suggesting that the lava dome associated with the increase in activity continues to grow. The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Monday 16 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

Activity continues at low levels (VEI=1). I think that the lava dome restarts growing because tremor restarts and increases (4 min yesterday and 34 min today) and that incandescence at night continues to be observed. However, 34 minutes of tremor is little, so it may be too early to make predictions.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Saturday 14 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the past several days, activity has come down to lower levels (VEI=1). According to me it suggests that the lava dome has finally collapsed. However, a glow from the crater at night may suggest that the lava dome restarts building and growing.

At the moment the Popocatépetl is beautiful, it is covered with snow. See photo here.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Sunday 8 March 2015 at 11:00:

 

Strong strombolian (VEI=2) activiy continues. Typical strombolian episodes including explosions producting up to 2km high ash columns with a moderate ash content (see photo), ejection of incandescent lava fragments, and those are accompannied by tremor. The number of explosions, minutes of tremor, emissions fluctuate but globally the activity is strongly strombolian (VEI=2).

This ash-producing explosive activity is linked to the presence lava dome n°55 located in the inner crater. The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks. I expected strong strombolian (VEI=2) activity to continue in the coming days or weeks.

We must note that ash can drift approximately 20 km from the volcano, and that it drifts in a northeast direction, and occasionally to the north.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Wednesday 4 March 2015 at 11:00:

Strong strombolian (VEI=2) activiy continues, linked to lava dome n°55 located in the inner crater. The presence of this lava dome suggests that explosions will make it collapse in the coming days or weeks. I expected strong strombolian (VEI=2) activity to continue in the coming days or weeks.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to predict and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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PAUL DERAND



26/03/2015
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