Moi, Paul Derand

Moi, Paul Derand

Popocatepetl eruption update, january 2015, Mexico local time (UTC-6h)

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Saturday 31 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the past 24 hours, the intensity of the eruption remained high (125 emissions).

Last night from 03:12 to 05:57, there has been a high number of gas and ash emissions (see photo), accompanied by tremor.

After this event, 1 volcanotectonic earthquake has been recorded (of Mg. 2,3 at 07:45). 45 additional minutes of tremor have been recorded. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, the number of emissions may remain high (95-225 emissions are likely in the next 24 hours).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

During the VEI=2 (explosive) episode of last night, 5 explosions with a low ash content have been recorded. They sent incandescent projections as far as 600 meters away from the crater and light ashfall has been reported in the municipality of  Huejotzingo, Puebla (28 km from the volcano's crater).

Luckily, the explosivity is now back to 1 or 2 (strombolian) this morning.  Fumarolic activity from the crater suggests that explosivity may remain stable but as it is quite little, I think explosivity may increase to 2.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website.

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Saturday 31 January 2015 at 9:00:

 

From 03:12 to 05:57, there has been a succession of a high number of gas and ash emissions (see photo), accompanied by tremor. It has been preceded by at least (I have sismic data until only 18:00 local time, I don't know how was the earthquake activity after that time; I will write again to give more precisions today at 11:00 local time3 volcanotectonic earthquakes on Friday evening: one of preliminar magnitude 2 at 16:51, an other one of preliminar magnitude 2.5 at 17:46 and another one of preliminar magnitude 2.5 at 17:59.

The emissions sent an ash and gas plume and incandescent projections towards the flanks, up to 600 meters away from the craters. The explosivity of this event is 2 (explosive).

Ashfall is possible a few kilometers to the North-East of the crater.

Now the situation is back to "normal" with a small fumarole emitted from the crater. Explosivity may have come back to 1 but we need to wait several hours to know that the situation is stable or not.

See you at 11am!

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Friday 30 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the past 24 hours, the intensity of the eruption remained high (135 emissions). No volcanotectonic earthquakes have been recorded. 2 minutes of tremor. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, the number of emissions may remain high (90-190 emissions are likely in the next 24 hours).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

In the last 24 hours, 3 explosions have been recorded: one small yesterday at 13:53, one today at 08:30 and the third one today at 09:58. Their plumes were sent 0.4 to 1.2 km above the volcano had a low content in ash. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1,5 on a scale of 8 (strombolian). A light gas plume (fumarolic activity) has been observed this morning. I think the explosivity of the eruption may increase to 2 (explosive in the next 24 hrs.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website

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Thursday 29 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the last 24 hours, 1 small (200m plume) explosion has been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1 on a scale of 8 (moderate). I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain around 1 during next the few days.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

In the past 24 hours, the intensity of the eruption remained moderate (110 emissions). No volcanotectonic earthquakes have been recorded. No tremor. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, activity's intensity may remain similar: moderate, possibly high.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Wednesday 28 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the last 24 hours, emissions with little ash content and 2 small explosions have been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1,5 on a scale of 8 (strombolian). I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain strombolian during next the few days.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

In the past two days, the intensity of the eruption remained high (184-220 emissions/day). Volcanotectonic earthquake activity stopped. No tremor. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, activity's intensity may decrease or remain similar; it would be moderate to high.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Monday 26 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the past few days, emissions with occasionally little ash content and no explosions have been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1 (moderate). I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain similar (1) during next the few days

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

In the past four days, the intensity of the eruption remained moderate (49 to 80 emissions/day). Volcanotectonic earthquake activity is low (only one volcanotectonic earthquake, of magnitude 1,5, which occured today). No tremor. The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, activity would be moderate to high.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Wednesday 21 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the past few days, emissions with little ash content and no explosions. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1 (moderate). I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain similar (1) during next the few days

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

On Monday and Tuesday, the intensity of the eruption remained moderate (78 to 92 emissions/day). A very high number of emissions (262 emissions) was recorded in the last 24 hours. 76 minutes of tremor have been registered today. Volcanotectonic earthquake activity decreased (no volcanotectonic event has been recorded since Saturday). The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, activity would  decrease and then be little to moderate to high (40 to 150 emissions/day)

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but everything is possible.

 

The largest emission was recorded on Tuesday at 6:31 pm. See the photo:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/popo/2015/ene/p0121151.jpg.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Sunday 18 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the past few days, emissions were minor with little ash content and few or no explosions. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1(moderate). I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain similar (1) during the next day or so.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but erything can happen.

 

In the past few days, the intensity of the eruption was fluctuating but remained little to moderate (43 to 118 emissions/day). No tremor has been registered since Tuesday. Volcanotectonic earthquake activity remained very little (a mean of 2 volcanotectonic event per day). The deformation of the volcano is negligible. In the next day or so, activity may remain little to moderate (30-140 emissions/day).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but erything can happen.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Thursday 15 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the past few days, emissions were minor with little ash content and few explosions. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1 (moderate). I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain similar during the next day or so.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but erything can happen.

 

In the past few days, the intensity of the eruption was fluctuating but remained small to moderate (46 to 119 emissions/day). No tremor has been registered since Tuesday, earthquake activity remained low (3-6 earthquakes and no volcanotectonic event). In the next day or so, activity may remain more or less similar, relatively low to moderate (30-130 emissions/day).

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible. Also, this is short term predictions. These are the most likely scenarios but erything can happen.

 

Again, every night, incandescence has been observed during some emissions.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Tuesday 13 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the last 24 hours, 65 minor emissions with little ash content have been recorded. 1 explosion has been recorded:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/popo/2015/ene/p0113151.jpg. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain at 1 during the next 24 hours.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has increased (65 minor emissions have been recorded). 57 minutes of low frequency and low intensity tremor has been registered, earthquake activity increased (14 earthquakes) and 1 volcanotectonic earthquake of magnitude 2,7 has been recorded. In the next 24 hours, activity may remain similar or decrease a little, to about 45-75 minor emissions.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed overnight.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Monday 12 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the last 24 hours, 47 minor emissions have been recorded. No explosions have been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain at 1 during the next 24 hours.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has increased a little (47 minor emissions have been recorded). No tremor has been registered, earthquake activity increased a little (3 earthquakes) and no volcanotectonic earthquakes have been recorded. In the next 24 hours, activity may remain similar, with about 33-63 minor emissions.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed overnight.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Sunday 11 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the last 24 hours, 34 minor emissions have been recorded. No explosions have been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain at 1 during the next 24 hours.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has decreased (34 minor emissions have been recorded). No tremor has been registered, earthquake activity decreased (2 earthquakes) and no volcanotectonic earthquakes have been recorded. In the next 24 hours, activity may increase a little, to about 25-55 minor emissions.

Be careful, volcanoes are still complicated to forecast and wrong predictions are possible.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed during the night.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Saturday 10 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the last 24 hours, 52 minor emissions with little ash content  have been recorded. No explosions have been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain at 1 in the next 24 hours.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has decreased a little (52 minor emissions have been recorded). No tremor has been registered, earthquake activity decreased (12 earthquakes) but the number of volcanotectonic earthquakes increased to 3. In the next 24 hours, activity may decrease a little, to about 35-65 minor emissions.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed during the night:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/popo/2015/ene/p0110156.jpg.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Friday 9 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

Good visibility made it possible  to observe the volcano.

 

In the last 24 hours, 61 minor emissions with little ash content  have been recorded. 2 explosions have been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain at 1 in the next 24 hours.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has decreased a little (61 minor emissions have been recorded). No tremor has been registered, earthquake activity increased (17 earthquakes) and 1 volcanotectonic earthquake of magnitude 1.5 has been registered. In the next 24 hours, activity is likely to increase a little, to about 50-80 minor emissions.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed during the night:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/popo/2015/ene/p0109154.jpg

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Thursday 8 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

Sky conditions made it possible  to observe the volcano.

 

In the last 24 hours, 65 minor emissions have been recorded. No explosion has been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. A small plume of fumarolic activity is more or less constantly emitted from the summit, I think the explosivity of the eruption may remain at 1 in the next 24 hours.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has increased a little (65 minor emissions have been recorded). Tremor has stopped, earthquake activity remained similar (4 earthquakes) and no volcanotectonic earthquakes have been registered. In the next 24 hours, activity is likely to decrease a little, to about 45-75 minor emissions.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed during the night.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Wednesday 7 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

Sky conditions made it possible  to observe the volcano. However, some cloudiness is expected again from tonight to Friday morning.

 

In the last 24 hours, 57 minor emissions have been recorded. No explosion has been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. Little fumarolic activity suggests that explosivity may remain similar, at 1 in the next 24 hours.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has increased a little (58 minor emissions have been recorded). 57 minutes of tremor has been recorded and earthquake activity has increased a little (4 earthquakes). On Thursday the intensity may  increase (to about 55-115 minor emissions) to offset the decrease in intensity of Monday and Tuesday. On Friday, activity is likely to continue with about 30-100 minor emissions per day.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed during the night.

 

No ashfall has been reported.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Tuesday 6 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

Clouds cleared this morning but are expected to come back from late Wednesday, and until early Friday.

 

In the last 24 hours, 43 minor emissions with very low ash content have been recorded. No explosion have been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. Little fumarolic activity suggests that explosivity may remain similar, at 1 during the next 24 hours.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has decreased (only 43 minor emissions have been recorded). No tremor has been recorded and earthquake activity has decreased (3 earthquakes). The intensity may remain similar (about 25-55 minor emissions) in the next 24 hours. On Thursday there may be a new gain in intensity (to about 63-123 minor emissions) to offset the decrease in intensity of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed during the night.

 

No ashfall has been reported.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Monday 5 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

Cloudiness made it difficult to observe the volcano late on Sunday and this morning. Clouds may clear late on Tuesday but are expected to come back from late Wednesday, and until early Friday.

 

In the last 24 hours, 60 minor emissions with very low ash content have been recorded. No explosion have been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1 Little fumarolic activity suggests that explosivity may remain at 1 in the next 24 hours.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has decreased (only 60 minor emissions have been recorded). 3 minutes of harmonic tremor have been recorded but earthquake activity has decreased (6 earthquakes). The intensity may remain similar (45-75 minor emissions) in the next 24 hours.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed during the night.

 

No ashfall has been reported.

 

On Friday 19th December, the volcano has been overflight by the authorities, no lava dome has been noticed inside the crater. The risk of a pyroclastic flow is low.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Sunday 4 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the last 24 hours, 113 minor emissions with very low ash content have been recorded. 2 explosions with moderate ash content have been recorded. I think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. A decrease in fumarolic activity suggests that explosivity may remain at 1 in the next 24 hours.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has increased (113 minor emissions have been recorded). No tremor has been recorded but earthquake activity has increased (9 earthquakes). The intensity may decrease a little or remain similar in the next 24 hours.

 

Again, incandescence has been observed during the night.

 

No ashfall has been reported.

 

On Friday 19th December, the volcano has been overflight by the authorities, no lava dome has been noticed inside the crater. The risk of a pyroclastic flow is low.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Saturday 3 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the last 24 hours, 58 minor emissions with very low ash content have been recorded. No explosions have been recorded. It think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. Fumarolic activity is observed and it suggests that explosivity may remain at 1 in the next 24 hours.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has decreased (only 58 minor emissions have been recorded). No tremor has been recorded and earthquake activity has decreased (only 3 earthquakes). The intensity may remain similar or increase a little in the next 24 hours.

 

Incandescence has been observed during the night.

 

No ashfall has been reported.

 

On Friday 19th December, the volcano has been overflight by the authorities, no lava dome has been noticed inside the crater. The risk of a pyroclastic flow is low.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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Friday 2 January 2015 at 11:00:

 

In the last 24 hours, 103 minor emissions with very low ash content have been recorded. 1 explosion with moderate ash content has been recorded (on Thursday at 19:48), it sent a plume 600m high, see the photo: //www.cenapred.gob.mx/popo/2015/ene/p0102154.jpg. It think that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is 1. Little fumarolic activity is observed most of the time. It suggests that explosivity may remain at 1 in the next 24-48 hours.

 

In the last 24 hours the intensity of the eruption has increased (103 minor emissions have been recorded). Tremor has increased (129 minutes of tremor)and earthquake activity has also increased (14 earthquakes, including one of magnitude 1,5).

 

Incandescence has been observed during the night.

 

No ashfall has been reported.

 

On Friday 19th December, the volcano has been overflight by the authorities, no lava dome has been noticed inside the crater. The risk of a pyroclastic flow is low.

 

See the volcano observatory's website:

//www.cenapred.gob.mx/reportesVolcan/BuscarReportesVolcan?optBusqueda=1

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1 January 2015 at 11:00: 

 

In the last 24 hours, 46 minor emissions with low ash content have been recorded. No explosions have been recorded. It suggests that today the volcanic explosivity of the eruption is only 1. A cloud of gas and water vapour (fumarolic activity) is observed most of the time. It suggests that explosivity may remain at 1 in the next few days.

 

The intensity of the eruption has decreased (only 46 minor emissions have been recorded). No tremor has been observed and earthquake activity decreases (only 6 earthquakes, including one major earthquake of magnitude 2). This suggests that the activity would decrease in intensity even more in the next 24 hours.

 

Incandescence has been observed during the night.

 

No ashfall has been reported.

 

On Friday 19th December, the volcano has been overflight by the authorities, no lava dome has been noticed inside the crater. The risk of a pyroclastic flow is low.

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03/02/2015
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